Happy National Pretzel Day, from the department of useless knowledge. One pretzel company is handing out their product free outside the Fox News headquarters in New York City this morning.

It is hard to explain exactly what is about to happen this week. From a big picture standpoint, some things will certainly become clear today, such as just how close Democrats are to passing financial reform. Despite all the signs pointing the opposite direction, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has held firm on his decision to begin voting on the measure today. First will come the vote as to whether the debate can even be held, one in which the threshold is 60 votes. If that passes, the bill will pass shortly after.

If not, well, who knows. But, as Senator Chris Dodd put it yesterday, it's been about 17 months since this people basically, "broke into our house and robbed us. And 17 months later, we haven't even changed the locks yet." We'll see if the locksmith comes today, as there were reports overnight that a deal had been reached. This is one of those issues that just about everyone agrees has to be done and few even disagree on how to do it. The problem is weeding out those who oppose it just because that's what they do (Mitch McConnell).

So, what's next?

Well, that is where the debate starts. Today was supposed to be the unveiling of a new, tri-partisan comprehensive clean energy and climate bill. I stress supposed to be. Senators John Kerry, Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham were set to hold a press conference revealing the fruits of months of work that would for sure be hated by industry and environmentalists alike, but would at least get the ball rolling toward new energy policy.

Then Arizona happened.

Last Friday, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer signed into law a bill that, among other things, allows (in fact requires) local police officers to request proof of legal residence from anyone who they have reason to believe is an illegal immigrant.

Obviously, there seem to be some serious issues there. And obviously, that immediately caught the attention of the federal government. So, during the last week there has been a change in tide that would push immigration ahead of energy and climate. Only problem: Graham. The South Carolina Senator said he would pull his support from climate if the Senate takes up immigration first. Climate, in addition, is way ahead of immigration, with steps that can't really be skipped still to come, such as committee work. Reid hinted at such in a statement on Saturday.

In that same story, Kerry reiterated that we may be looking at the, "last, best shot," at energy legislation. And, like I said all throughout the health care debate, this is far more difficult than that was and far more divisive. Speaking of health care, recall that Graham was also pessimistic about continuing with climate after that vote. Yet, here we are.

Anyway, back to the immigration law. I wrote about this before, but there are a couple of rather conservative points I want to make about this bill. But before that, know that I recognize just how awful of a bill it is and shows just how far we've come from being the haven for immigrants across the world.

On Saturday Night Live this weekend, Seth Meyers tackled the issue, saying:

This week, Arizona signed the toughest illegal immigration law in the country which will allow police to demand identification papers from anyone they suspect is in the country illegally.

I know there’s some people in Arizona worried that Obama is acting like Hitler, but could we all agree that there’s nothing more Nazi than saying “Show me your papers”? There’s never been a World War II movie that didn’t include the line “show me your papers”. It’s their catchphrase. Every time someone says “show me your papers”, Hitler’s family gets a residual check.

So heads up, Arizona; that’s fascism. I know, I know, it’s a dry fascism, but it’s still fascism.

Whether you think that is funny or not, it's true.

As for the law itself, here are the two points:
- If Latinos voted, this would never have happened. Of the 131 million voters in the 2008 election, barely over 7 percent of them were Latino. Between 2004 and 2008, the number of eligible Latino voters increased more than 20 percent, while the actual voting number increased just more than 2 percent. Latinos are the largest and fastest growing minority group in the country. But, and yes I understand there was a special circumstance, almost twice as many blacks voted in the 2008 elections than Latinos.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, as of 2008, Latinos represented 30 percent of Arizona's population. Want to know how many members of that state's delegation have Latino names? One. And he doesn't represent Phoenix. The problem with this isn't just bad representation for a community. There is also no big push to court the Latino vote because chances are they just aren't going to vote. One congressman threatened to tell Latinos to stay home in November if the federal government doesn't take up immigration reform. That isn't necessary.

No, I am not blaming Latinos for the stupidity of their elected officials. But, every time I see a sign at these Tea Party rallies that says, "we need term limits," the same thing comes to mind: we have term limits. They're called elections. Show up and vote.

(Side note, the Tea Party organizers could really take a page out of the Earth Day Network's book. The Climate Rally yesterday had tens of thousands of people, meaning they didn't have to lie about the total number. That compared to the Tea Party rally, which had about 5,000, maybe.

- This was a smart move by Arizona. Pick your jaw up off the ground. The fact is this: illegal immigration is a major problem in the state, especially in the southern part and especially given the economic climate. The job of fixing it lies with the federal government. But it isn't happening. A good immigration law would have gotten little attention. This is a national story instantly. Clearly, Congress is paying attention. On that front, it worked. Not sure the Arizona legislature deserves that much credit, but the result works for them.

So, like I said, should be an interesting week.

Notes:

- Got a email this morning saying that it could take months to stop the leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico. It is spilling about 42,000 gallons of oil into the gulf everyday.

- Get your tans now, as the new "Tan Tax" will kick in July 1.

- Interesting note, with no link: we have been giving Congress a lot of crap about the partisan bickering and inability to get anything done, both of which seem factual. But I had a conversation on Saturday in which a point was made that should be recognized. During probably the most partisan era we have ever had, we are also seeing debate and work on some of the biggest issues we have ever faced. Yes, it's taken billions, even trillions of dollars in commitments (much of which is offset in many ways), but we are addressing a myriad of major issues right now and making significant progress. From the stimulus, to equal pay laws, to health care, to financial reform that looks increasingly more likely everyday, this Congress, in about 15 months, has achieved huge returns. And, if even one more bill passes, whether it is energy or immigration, it would be hard to find a Congress in a very long time with this much success. We have to remember to give credit where credit is due.

- WARNING: Watch this video at your own risk. Yesterday, former Mariner Chris Jakubauskas was on the receiving end of the scariest play in sports (in my opinion), when he was drilled squarely in the face by a line drive off the bat of the Astros Lance Berkman. Jakubauskas has a concussion and was placed on the DL. No word yet on whether he was able to fly home with the team.

- Finally, this is one of those things that maybe wasn't amazing writing, but so well delivered by the president. The eulogy of 29 miners in West Virginia:

"How can we fail them? How can a nation that relies on its miners not do everything in its power to protect them? How can we let anyone in this country put their lives at risk by simply showing up to work; by simply pursuing the American dream?"